Reduced Provincial Immigration Targets Prompt Concerns Across Canada

Provincial immigration ministers in Manitoba and Newfoundland and Labrador are voicing their concerns over sharply reduced immigration targets for 2025. Both provinces have expressed their desire to welcome more newcomers than the federal government’s allocated numbers, highlighting the growing difficulties faced by Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs) across the country.

This announcement coincides with the delay in the reopening of the Northwest Territories Provincial Nominee Program (NTNP). The NTNP, which had initially planned to accept 100 applications for provincial nominations by mid-January 2025, will now need to revise its approach due to the unexpected policy changes. Similarly, the New Brunswick Provincial Nominee Program (NBPNP) also adjusted its immigration plans for 2025 to align with the overall changes to Canada's immigration system.

For individuals interested in immigrating to Canada through a Provincial Nominee Program, this shift could mean delays in application processes and extended wait times for those hoping to receive their provincial nominations. With the lowered immigration targets, many provinces are struggling to meet the demands of their communities, which rely on the influx of immigrants to fill labor gaps and contribute to local economies.

To date, only Manitoba has conducted a provincial immigration draw in 2025, as other provinces await further details on how they will manage the reduced quotas. This delay in provincial immigration activity is largely due to a significant reduction in the federal government's allocation for PNPs in 2025.

In October of the previous year, Canada’s Immigration Minister Marc Miller announced a 50% reduction in immigration allocations for PNPs. These cuts, part of the 2025 Immigration Levels Plan, have significantly impacted provincial immigration targets, reducing the number of new immigrants expected to be accepted under the PNPs by half compared to the previous year.

Before the 2025-2027 Levels Plan was released, the PNPs were set to be a major source of new immigrants to Canada, surpassing federal immigration targets through the Express Entry system. However, the new immigration plan sets the target for PNP admissions at only 55,000 in 2025, a sharp drop from the originally projected 120,000.

This dramatic cut poses a challenge for many provinces that rely on immigration to sustain their economies and fill critical job openings. To counterbalance these reductions, the federal government introduced the "In-Canada Focus" category, designed to prioritize Express Entry candidates who are already in Canada. This category, which focuses on individuals in the Canadian Experience Class (CEC) and enhanced PNPs, is set to accommodate 82,890 admissions in 2025. However, this is unlikely to offset the substantial cuts to provincial immigration levels fully.

As immigration policy is governed at the federal level, provinces are obligated to accept the numbers and allocations set by the government each year. As a result, provinces will have to navigate a much smaller pool of immigrants in 2025, which may have economic implications. Newcomers play an essential role in filling labor shortages, and a reduction in immigration numbers could exacerbate these gaps, affecting the economic stability of communities across Canada.

With these changes, provincial immigration ministers must prepare for a very different landscape in 2025. The shift in targets will likely require significant adjustments in how provincial programs operate and how they plan for the future in attracting and settling immigrants.